Trump would have expected some criticism to his ‘The One, Big, Beautiful Bill’.

You know the kind where a critic calls his One, Big, Beautiful Bill, ‘ugly’ or ‘stupid’ or something drawn from a pool of words synonymous to those two.

He must have known those were coming and must have prepared for those kinds of verbal barbs.

Perhaps, in his mind’s eye, he would have had a plan: to duck, deflect, parry, or even counter those.

But to have it called a “disgusting abomination” must have cut deep.

That’s the kind of barb that sticks.

And is now in plain sight for everyone to see, as the Senate votes on the bill.

Trump intends to sign this bill into law by July 4th.

Here is where it gets interesting:

The Senate is considering this bill under a congressional procedure known as “budget reconciliation”. The use of this procedure limits amendments and potential obstruction; and does not require a 60-vote supermajority (in a 100-seat Senate).

Only a simple majority would do.

With the Republicans holding a 53-47 margin in the senate, you would think that they have got this in the bag?

One Big Beauty looks done and dusted, until you factor in the timing of Musk’s very public tirade.

Has Musk done enough to get at least 4 Republicans ─ a 50-50 will have the VP cast the tiebreaker, so the Republicans will need to lose more than 3 votes ─ to turn into Fiscal Hawks?

By

Avinash Menon, CFA

Founder and CEO,

52 Seconds Capital Limited

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The Swiss CPI remained unchanged in April 2025, not only when compared with the previous month but also on a yoy basis.

Surely, the 0.0 reading for April 2025 must mean that the next CPI print (for May) will be negative.

And a negative CPI print can only mean one thing: Deflation.

The deflationary effects have evidently been catalysed due to a turbo-charged CHF.

The SNB now sees the CHF’s record strength as a major bugbear.

Yet, is it possible, that not so far back in the past, the strength in the CHF had shielded the Swiss economy from purchasing-power busting inflation super-spikes?

Ironically, yes.

You might recall that while the Fed and the ECB dealt with high single-digit inflation, in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, through a rapid rate tightening exercise, the SNB increased rates only up to 1.75%.

Swiss average inflation, in 2022, was only 2.8%.

Incredible, yeah?

It was the strong CHF that insulated Switzerland then.

And yes, there was SNB intervention as well.

In 2022.

And especially in 2023, as the SNB turned into a large-scale seller of foreign currencies. In 2023 alone, the SNB sold $150 billion worth of foreign currency.

To understand the enormity of the SNB’s decision ─ sell foreign currencies to strengthen the CHF as a shield against imported inflation ─ you must consider that the SNB unwound what was essentially a carry trade, with the CHF as a funding currency, at potentially the worst possible time only because it stayed loyal to its primary mandate: price stability.

The situation that the SNB confronts now is decidedly different.

Against the twin backdrop of a temporary pause in the 31% tariffs against Swiss Exports and a Trump administration that has warned the Swiss against currency intervention, would the SNB go with a pure-play interest rate focused policy to manage an ‘imported deflation’ situation?

Or would it (in some ways true to its reputation: remember when the SNB stunned the currency markets on 15 Jan 2015? 😉), in a neat inversion of its 2022-23 playbook, intervene again?

By

Avinash Menon, CFA

Founder and CEO,

52 Seconds Capital Limited

Other New Articles