Yesterday, T. Rowe Price — founded in 1937, with $ 1.52 trillion in AUM — announced their plans to acquire Oak Hill Advisors, a leading Alternative Credit Manager with $53 billion in AUM. T. Rowe will fund the acquisition with 74% in cash and 26% in T. Rowe Price common stock for a total price of $3.3 billion. Additionally, the deal also has a sweetener for Oak Hill Advisors: a reward of $ 900 million in cash if certain performance milestones are met by 2025.

The acquisition price here works out to ~ 6% of Oak Hill’s AUM and at first look may appear expensive: Franklin Templeton acquired $804 billion in AUM from Legg Mason in a $4.5 billion all-cash transaction early last year. The FT acquisition price translates to roughly 50 bps on the target’s AUM.

Has T. Rowe overpaid?

This is the classic ‘Price Vs. Value’ debate that usually T. Rowe solves for its clients!

The markets did not seem to think T. Rowe overpaid: the stock was up 5.6% yesterday despite the Baltimore-based firm reporting net revenues that missed average analyst estimates and net outflows of $ 6.4 billion.

Lets delve into the mental-make up of the acquirer and perhaps therein lies the clues to this acquisition: T. Rowe has remained as sure-footed as the Big-horn Sheep in the active-management space for decades now and has steered clear of any forays into the index-hugging world of passives. Active Management is a tough terrain to continue to be on especially when looked at in the context of the rapid ascent of peers like Blackrock, Vanguard and Fidelity who straddle both passive and active-management.

T. Rowe’s acquisition does not appear to be ‘cost-synergies’ focused — unlike the FT-Legg Mason deal where cost-synergy was one of the key factors — but is instead an attempt to add breadth to its product range by adding the Alternative Assets Product Range from Oak Hills which includes: Private Markets, Liquid Strategies and Structured Strategies. These incremental products are also expected to improve fee margins since they have ‘performance fees’ and ‘carried interest’.

As the tailwinds continue to build up for the Alternative Assets space — with blue chips turning expensive and value-investing filters returning very few opportunities — this acquisition also appears timely and essential.

Long-term stockholders — T. Rowe is a dividend aristocrat that has increased its dividends for 35 consecutive years — will do well to wait and watch; as the Big-Horn Sheep attempts to bound up the slippery mountain slope of the Asset Management industry.

By

Avinash Menon, CFA

Founder and CEO,

52 Seconds Capital Limited

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Novi : Robust Use-Case, Strong USPs

Novi Financial, a subsidiary of Facebook, today announced the roll out of its digital wallet app in the US-Gautemala remittance corridor. For the pilot, Novi announced two new partners: Coinbase (for custody solutions) and Paxos (for their USDP Stablecoin). Novi’s use case is robust: an estimated 1.7 billion people worldwide could have access to safe and affordable financial services through smartphones if the right digital financial architecture is created.

Novi also defines some clear USPs for its digital wallet:

  • Affordable (no fees, no mark-up)
  • Safe (technology powered by blockchain, fraud-protection)
  • Ease (sending money is as easy as sending a message on Whatsapp or Messenger)
  • And finally, Speed (instant transfer, less than a second)

Keeping track of the changing profile pictures

The Novi project’s journey from ideation to pilot has seen some identity reboots among the partners: Novi was earlier known as Calibra; USDP was earlier known as PAX and yes, the most popular of them all: Libra — Facebook’s original crypto play — is now known as Diem.

Funnily enough its DIEM that appears to be have been ‘unfollowed’ (isn’t that usually a precursor to an ‘unfriend’ request?) as Facebook’s Novi chose Paxos’ USDP instead as its stablecoin.

David Marcus, Head of Novi, did indicate — both in the press release as well as in series of tweets — that Diem remains an integral part of Novi’s plans. This is what he said:

Our support for Diem has not changed. We see great value in the way Diem is designed with robust protections for consumers and controls to combat financial crime. We intend to migrate Novi to the Diem payment network once it receives regulatory approval. The goal for Novi has been and always will be to be interoperable with other digital wallets and we believe a purpose-built blockchain for payments, like Diem, is critical to deliver solutions to the problems that people experience with the current payment system.

Why did Novi choose Paxos’ USDP over Facebook’s Diem?

Let’s flip the calendar back a bit. Libra (now Diem) was announced as a Cryptocurrency way back in 2019. Shouldn’t Libra (now Diem) then have been the first choice stabelecoin for Novi’s digital wallet?

This isn’t an easy one to explain. The technology and motives behind the Libra announcement were crystal clear. Facebook’s vision of a world in which everyone on the planet is included in the financial system was audacious. The devil may have been in the details though and in execution. Libra was nothing short of a new world order. Based in Geneva, with 28 founding members that included the likes of Visa, Mastercard, Paypal, Uber and Lyft among others, the Libra’s value was tied to a basket of currencies that included the USD, GBP, EURO, CHF and JPY.

In hindsight, this appears to have been a major design flaw and could have been the reason for the rapid ascent and adoption of other stablecoins like: Circle’s USDC, Tether’s USDT and Paxos’ USDP. All three stablecoins were created with the simpler design of a 1:1 peg with the USD.

Paxos’ USDP appears to have pipped the other two to Novi’s post — yeah, we are still punning social media 🙂 — on the basis of its significant regulatory attributes. Paxos’ 1:1 stablecoin peg — 96% in USD Cash and Cash Equivalents — is as close to 1:1 as it gets.

The Novi shift to Diem may eventually happen — in May 2021, Diem announced plans to launch a USD stablecoin which it plans to manage against USD reserves — but Paxos’ selection for the pilot is a ‘click-the-like-button’ moment for all cryptofirms that prioritize high standards of self-regulation and customer protection.

By

Avinash Menon, CFA

Founder and CEO,

52 Seconds Capital Limited

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The battle — ongoing since August 2020 — between Epic Games and Apple saw an unexpected twist last Tuesday after Microsoft stepped onto the turf, extending a timely shield potion to Epic Games: Microsoft said its bringing Epic’s storefront to its very own app store. That wasn’t all. The company also said it would not take a cut from Epic if the gaming firm directs gamers to its own payment systems.

This is a significant development for the app development industry as a whole.

David Vs. Goliath

Gamers would recall the ‘David Vs Goliath’ moment from last year when Epic — the makers of the popular video game Fortnite — sued Apple after the Cupertino-based smartphone manufacturer booted out Fornite from its App Store. The trigger for this? Epic introduced a direct payment option that helped Fortniters bypass the App Store and complete their payments outside the App Store.

Apple and Google charge between 15% and up to 30% on in-app purchases.

The legal wrangle lasted for more than an year until — on September 9th 2021 — Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued an order that allows app developers to add ‘buttons, external links, or other calls to action that direct customers to purchasing mechanisms’ into their apps. Recall that Epic had filed an ‘anti-trust’ lawsuit against Apple; and, while the Judge did rule in Epic’s favor on the payment related point, Apple — despite getting nicked — appears to have emerged victorious since the ruling labelled its conduct ‘anti-competitive’ and not ‘monopolistic’.

But that nick counts. Epic plans to appeal the ruling.

Microsoft extending a shield potion to Epic Games is not a conscientious act

In a move that may have wider ramifications for the Epic-Apple appeals, Microsoft, last Tuesday, also said it would “allow third-party storefront apps to be discoverable in the Microsoft Store on Windows.”

Microsoft possibly sees the writing on the (garden) wall earlier than Apple and Alphabet; and, sees its store launch on October 5th 2021 as an opportunity to build on its promise to promote ‘choice, fairness and innovation’ in its app store.

This is a June 24th, 2021 update on the Microsoft Store policies:

Starting July 28, app developers will also have an option to bring their own or a third party commerce platform in their apps, and if they do so they don’t need to pay Microsoft any fee. They can keep 100% of their revenue.

Microsoft allying with Epic Games may either trigger more app defections — as developers with payment capabilities will see a clear fee arbitrage opportunity with Microsoft now —from Apple Store and Google’s Playstore or may force Apple and Google over the long-term to cut fees to zero as well.

Epic defines its end-game: Its Victory Royale

Epic in their response to Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers’ ruling indicated that the fight is far from over and the game-developer will pursue it’s initial stance (through appeals): that Apple’s app store policies are ‘monopolistic’ (or more accurately ‘duopolistic’ if you throw in the other Goliath — Google Playstore)

Epic’s CEO, Tim Sweeney, is convinced that app stores — whether its Apple’s or Google’s — cannot remain ‘walled gardens’ anymore and must ‘open up to third-party stores as well’

For now, Apple has blacklisted Fortnite from the Apple Store until all the court appeals are done.

This battle is going to be bigger than Apple Vs Qualcomm (over patent licensing). Much bigger than Oracle Vs Google (over plagiarism)

This is going to be protracted. This is going be ugly.

Make no mistake.

This is Battle Royale!

By

Avinash Menon, CFA

Founder and CEO,

52 Seconds Capital Limited

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