104 companies have newly listed on the US stock market this year. As of today (and not surprising considering the hurricane-strength headwinds against IPOs since H2 2022) this is 30% less relative to the same time in 2022, which had 149 IPOs by this date and is minuscule compared to the 1035 all-time record new listings in 2021 ─ the year of the IPO gold rush!

Some of the high-profile listings this year were restaurant chain, Cava and JNJ’s former consumer health division, Kenvue; and the returns corner was dominated by biotech names like Genelux and Structure Therapeutics up 264% and 97% YTD respectively.

Technology, scorched last year, has been inconspicuous so far (Some tech investors might enjoy the nostalgic feelings of 2021 that the choppiness of VINFAST evokes in them; and may have even watched the 90% listing day plunge in Better with emotions similar to what the cavemen of yore may have experienced when they first learnt the pros and cons of handling fire)

And yet, as Arm and Instacart get ready to list, technology does appear to dominate the back half of the IPO pipeline this year. And the buzz gets stronger around the potential listing of TikTok, Epic Games, Stripe and Discord.

Apart from the absence of tech names, 2023 has been an unusual IPO year in another way: there was only one direct listing.

Surf Air Mobility was the sole company to list directly.

Listing directly has some advantages:

1. The firm avoids paying underwriting fees.

2. Since no new shares are created, early investors aren’t diluted.

3. There is no lockup period

The direct-listing process doesn’t come without its drawbacks though: the obvious ones would be that there is no new capital, there is no green-shoe option to address a potential surge in demand come listing day; and the initial phase of the listing is marked by intense bouts of price volatility (Surf Air has plunged 57% since its July 27th listing)

Look at those drawbacks again: they are interesting because the period from 2018 to 2021 was marked by companies choosing to list directly (not really to avoid paying underwriting fees to investment banks, that’s a minimal gain) but because they were already flush with capital!

A look at some of the high-profile direct listings from 2018 to 2021 confirms this: Spotify (2018), Slack (2019), Asana (2020), Palantir (2020), Roblox (2021) and Coinbase (2021). Those balance-sheets had piles of cash!

There were only 11 direct listings in the 20 years prior to Spotify’s in 2018 and incredibly enough there have been 13 since then.

Against the backdrop of heavy-compression in private market valuations and the US Fed exercising a vice-like grip on credit, it will be interesting to see if Direct-Listings become more frequent or infrequent options from here on.

By

Avinash Menon, CFA

Founder and CEO,

52 Seconds Capital Limited

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It’s called ‘Sajin Jeongchi’ in North Korea; and serves a useful purpose for its reclusive leader. There is nothing derogatory about the words though and it’s in fact used all over the world — ‘Sajin Jeongchi’ is Korean for the use of photographs in politics!

Indeed, why speak when a picture can speak a thousand words?

Only using stills could, however, pose problems for the less-reclusive, more-gregarious leaders from across the world. Imagine the sense of collective loss we would all feel if ‘Musk Vs. Zuckerberg: The Cage Fight’ is reduced to a still, and not live streamed!

Because if pictures are worth a thousand words, then videos are probably worth a million!

And what better than a montage of a centenarian US statesman meeting the Chinese President?

It’s in this context, that the release of video snippets from Henry Kissinger’s meeting with President Xi Jinping in China, during the former’s recent visit — as a private citizen — assumed some significance.

The videos created some stir on social media that the visit was an attempt by Kissinger to placate frayed tempers between the two superpowers.

Kissinger is a known figure in China; after all, he along with Nixon was instrumental in drawing out a reclusive China onto the world stage in 1971. That breakthrough remains his crowning glory yet!

Kissinger is an ‘either you love him or loathe him’ kind of a diplomat, depending on which side of the lens of history you view his body of work from. Arguably, what takes the sheen off Kissinger’s 1971 China triumph is the disasters that his policies led to in East Timor, Cambodia, Laos, Chile, and East Pakistan.

So, the man who once famously said ‘America has no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests’ was unlikely to have met the Chinese President to discuss gallium and germanium export bans.

Could it have been Taiwan then? Unlikely.

Any discussions around Taiwan would have been awkward for Kissinger because he (along with Nixon) claimed credit for the One China Policy formulated in 1972 that considers Taiwan to be a part of the PRC.

It’s unlikely then it wasn’t any of these issues.

There was perhaps nothing more to this than a 100-year-old US statesman meeting the Chinese President.

In effect, it was just Kissinger homing in on perhaps his only major career triumph.

A sepia-tinted picture would have done just fine.In effect, it was just Kissinger homing in on perhaps his only major career triumph.

By

Avinash Menon, CFA

Founder and CEO,

52 Seconds Capital Limited

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There was a lot of brouhaha earlier this year, both in mainstream and social media, after short-seller #HindenburgResearch stepped up and took aim at Adani Enterprises. The ugly fallout that ensued from thereon between the hunter and the hunted had all the elements of a pulp fiction thriller packed within a lurid cover.

Opinions were polarized: from a large swathe of raucous investors who believed the timing of the report (released on January 24, two days before Adani enterprises FPO raise) made it appear that Hindenburg wanted to torpedo the FPO (which it did!) to another, although a lot quieter, corner of the market which thought this was a classic short-selling move: wrong-footing a company whose stock had made a parabolic 19x move in just under 5 years.

You may be wondering: why am I referencing a controversial event from January this year? Isn’t it too late to take sides anyway? 🙂 Well, I am not really trying to referee this on the lines of who is right and who is wrong (that’s best left to the markets to decide!) but I am revisiting this from the context of the short-sell trade itself.

How has it fared?

Its mixed: while the shares of Adani Enterprises have more than doubled from its Feb 2023 low point of ~INR 1,000 and sit pretty at INR 2,490 today, they are still down 35% on a YTD basis! Is the momentum upward? Yes, the shares have a 3-month return of 30%!

Ah, momentum. That’s as double-edged as it gets.

All traders experience moments of horror during the course of their work, but perhaps, as any short seller would know, nothing can match the terror experienced by a trader during a short squeeze. This opens up a theoretical possibility of an infinite loss!

So, is this the moment where the trade turns against Hindenburg Research? Or will the initial short theses strengthen further? (Hindenburg does not disclose its portfolio positions)

That next act could possibly be decided by more disclosures around two things:

(1) Recall that Hindenburg’s held short positions in the Adani Group Companies through its offshore bonds and ‘non-Indian traded derivative instruments’. The ‘non-Indian traded derivative instruments’ was later identified as Structured Product Derivatives (SPDs) by government agencies from India but was never fully explained by either SEBI or Hindenburg.

(2) That and the recent moves from SEBI to recategorize the risk grades of FPIs; and make the disclosure norms more stringent for high-risk FPIs.

And yes, opinions could well remain polarized. Short selling is like that.

Perhaps best explained by Jim Chanos when he said: I will always understand the schadenfreude aspect to short selling. I get that no one will always like it.

By

Avinash Menon, CFA

Founder and CEO,

52 Seconds Capital Limited

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