The word ‘cusp’ has different connotations in the fields of astrology and mathematics. In astrology it indicates overlaps ─ like a little overlap between two zodiac signs. The mathematical definition of a cusp is, however, different: it is defined as a point on a curve where a moving point must reverse direction. And that point of reversal is called the cusp of change.
Thailand is at that cusp of change ─ a cusp that is precise to the mathematical definition and perhaps of the kind that only happens when the planets are aligned favourably ─ after the Move Forward Party (MFP) swept to a stunning election win in May this year.
Going into the elections as the underdog, the MFP, punching well above its weight, edged out the more favoured Pheu Thai Party (PTT). Both, the MFP and the Shinawatra-led PTT, ran their campaigns on a common anti-establishment plank: the Thais have had enough of the military-controlled rule under Prime Minister Prayuth (who first seized power in a 2014 coup and then held on to power as Prime Minister after winning the 2019 general election).
Momentum in politics, for an opposition party, is often due to the incumbent party shooting itself in its foot, and so perhaps this result was always on the cards after General Prayuth in the universal tradition of all military-controlled governments ‘rewrote the constitution’ in 2017, but very often the difference between a win and a landslide win is: how clearly has the opposition signalled its stance.
And this is where it could sometimes get difficult for parties that win after initially signalling a strong centrist-progressive stance.
Usually, voters perceive a party moving from an initial far-right pre-election stance to a somewhat centrist post-election position as ‘moderating’; but even a minimal shift from a pre-election centrist stance towards the far-right or the left is viewed as a letdown (Contrast Macron’s ‘extreme centrism’ win in his first term with his ‘left-leaning’ win in the second term and you get the picture).
If (‘if’ and not ‘when’ because even nearly two months after the elections, thanks to the junta-heavy structure of the Senate, the MFP, despite their resounding election win, may not get a shot at the Premiership) Pita Limjaroenrat, MFP’s leader and a radical pro-democracy proponent, does indeed get the Prime Ministerial role, it could well be a moment of reversal for a country that has seen about 20 coups since becoming a constitutional monarchy in 1932.
Any dilution in the pre-election progressive stance of the two key opposition parties, from hereon, could result in Thailand adding further to its count of lost decades.
The next couple of weeks will see all the political parties involved ratchet up the rhetoric as the race for the Thai premiership heats up and enters its final stretch; but the Thais can sit back and celebrate this moment in their country’s narrative. When a moving point could reverse direction – at the cusp.
