Both mainstream and social media would like you to believe that there are only two wars on currently.
Well, if you broaden the definition of a ‘war’ to include insurgencies, ethnic, civil conflicts and territorial feuds, then the count of ongoing wars shoots up to ~30.
None of these ~30 countries, however, is Latin American.
Which is unusual since Latin America has traditionally been a stronghold for dictators and was also witness to some of history’s bloodiest wars.
The South American continent has been quiet for a long time now (the last war was fought in 1995 ─ the Cenepa War ─ between Ecuador and Peru).
That’s changed recently after Venezualan President, Maduro, sounded the war drums.
The bone of contention ─ the oil-rich Esequiba region, a territory claimed by Venezuela but controlled by neighbouring Guyana.
History sure does rhyme.
The Venezuelan intent to annex Esequiba has echoes of the Chaco War, fought from 1932 – 1935, between Paraguay and Bolivia, for control of the northern section of the Gran Chaco region.
The cause for that war?
Bolivia and Paraguay (both equally poor nations then) perceived the Chaco region to be oil rich.
There was another interesting twist to the Chaco War: long-forgotten now, but speculation was rife in Latin America then that Gran Chaco was the battleground state not between Bolivia and Paraguay but between Standard Oil (supporting Bolivia) and Shell (supporting Paraguay).
The Chaco War ended in 1935.
Nine decades on.
You know Shell.
On Standard Oil though, you may wonder….
Well, Standard Oil doesn’t exist today. Many of its descendants do though.
You know them today as ExxonMobil, Chevron and Marathon Petroleum Corporation (and many more).
Exxon and its partners (Hess Oil, CNOOC International) have bet a whopping $45 billion on their offshore oil projects in Guyana. The oil majors expect to bring daily capacity to 1.2 million bpd by 2027. (Guyana is so epochal that it influenced Chevron’s $53 billion acquisition of Hess earlier this year)
Maduro’s sounding of the war drums appears to be done with an eye on the elections next year. It is also perhaps a bumbled attempt to invoke his political mentor’s (the late Chavez) ideals as a leader who took on the US oil majors (Chavez had pushed ConocoPhilips and Exxon out of Venezuela in 2007).
Both heavily left-leaning leaders then promptly ran Venezuela into the ground.
Oddly enough, Maduro’s sabre-rattling comes at a time when Latin American powerhouses like Brazil, Mexico and Argentina are considering privatizing their energy assets.
Apart from it being a timely investment, was the Exxon largesse towards Guyana unfiltered feedback by the US oil majors to Venezuela for Chavez’s 2007 diktat?
Only time will tell.
Meanwhile, Maduro may well hark back to the events of the Chaco War and pay heed to that old adage: Don’t beat the drums of war unless you are ready to fight!
